Quick Definition: When someone tends to favor information that confirms an existing belief or hypothesis and ignores fact that state otherwise. Can also lead to conducting experiments that only favor one outcome as opposed to other possibilities equality.
A lot of PUAs who think they are good may have confirmation bias. Or, they have a certain belief about women and only see evidence that reinforces that belief.
For example, I recently talked to two guys who study game and asked, “can you find nice girls at clubs?” One of them said absolutely, all the time. The other one said no, most of the good girls are not found in clubs. Based on my own experience, yes, sometimes, but the majority of the time the girls that we talk to at clubs and bars are not the traditional, good value girls I personally like.
Every person has their definition of “good girl”. Furthermore, each person has a belief that he or she has to cling onto the believe. If you breakup with someone, or they break up with you, you have to believe that there is true love out there for you, even if historical evidence points otherwise. However, confirmation bias can distort this reality, you may be over confident, or overly critical.
Generally speaking, in PU, it is tactically advantageous to have a little bit of confirmation bias for your confidence and perceived flaws (too short, race related) and think you’re a little more awesome than you actually are. Up to a certain point. If data keep suggesting that you “fish” opener is not working, admit it and change it up.
Wikipedia further explains confirmation bias as:
A series of experiments in the 1960s suggested that people are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs. Later work re-interpreted these results as a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. In certain situations, this tendency can bias people’s conclusions. Explanations for the observed biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Another explanation is that people show confirmation bias because they are weighing up the costs of being wrong, rather than investigating in a neutral, scientific way.
Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. Poor decisions due to these biases have been found in political and organizational contexts.
Usage: Don’t let your confirmation bias blind you from your mistakes in set.